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Lyn Alden's Top Investment Ideas For 2023

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In this recording, Lyn Alden joins Resource Talks for a conversation about commodities, inflation, interest rates, the bond market, and her outlook on the economy in 2023.

Lyn writes free articles that have been useful to me at https://www.lynalden.com, and she also offers a more in-depth (not free but worth it) research service.

My 5-point summary of this conversation with Lyn Alden:

1. Global growth, and the China reopening are the two main topics to watch. Based on that, Lyn Alden doesn't have a high conviction about the direction of the markets in 2023. She doesn't expect new highs to be made in the US markets, nor does she expect a full-blown crash.

2. The market is too dovish - and expects the FED to pivot soon - but the FED is telling a different story - they're saying they will stay the course - which Lyn says is too hawkish based on where the economy is. Alden is somewhere in the middle when it comes down to interest rates.

3. Whether inflation re-peaks after the current disinflationary period will depend on how much monetary and/or fiscal stimulus there is in the system. However, Lyn expects us to remain in a structural high-inflation environment, with periods of disinflation - like the one we're in right now, which she expects to last throughout 2023 - until there is a FED and/or fiscal pivot, which she expects to come when "something breaks in the economy". She compares the current environment in the US to the 1940s in the UK, where the UK was losing power quickly, and the US was becoming the new power in the markets. "Inflation leads to war, war leads to inflation", Lyn told me.

4. Lyn is bullish on the whole commodity complex. More specifically, she likes energy and precious metals. She told me she likes energy pipelines as a long-term income play. Besides commodities, Lyn is looking over at the banking sector and likes the fact that banks have pretty strong balance sheets. She told me that a lot of the deficits that we're seeing from the treasuries - and now even the FED - flows into the bottom lines of the banks.

5. One of the mistakes Lyn made over the last three years was buying high-growth companies after they had fallen a lot, without considering how much more they could fall if the monetary policy would tighten as much as it did. She bought some growth stocks too early, because she didn't imagine the FED could be as hawkish as they have been this last year - raising interest rates by almost 400 basis points in one year. Essentially, "the dip kept dipping" and Lyn didn't expect that it would dip as many times as it did. However, she said that she didn't over-allocate to these stocks, which saved her portfolio. Alden reminded me of the great lesson that it is important to make mistakes but to be careful not to make "game over" mistakes, and think about the risk to your overall portfolio before going into every and/or any investment, no matter how cheap that investment might seem at the time you're looking at it.

In case I missed an important point in this summary, forgot to ask a question, my hair was ugly, or was pronouncing words wrongly, please bring that to my attention in the comments section below, or by reaching out personally on Twitter (@antonioatansv) or at https://resourcetalks.com. To all of the four people who still read video descriptions; Inside you, there are two wolves. Thank you for being here.

Timestamps
00:00 Important note
00:45 Lyn Alden's summary on the current state of the markets
03:50 Is Lyn Alden bullish on stocks?
06:15 Emerging markets and why they matter
09:50 Do interest rates go above 5%?
12:40 Does the economy break at 5% interest rates?
16:25 Household & government debt and why it matters
22:10 Will higher inflation come back soon?
27:20 Is the de-dollarisation narrative real?
33:30 Is Lyn Alden bullish on energy commodities?
36:40 Lyn Alden on uranium
40:10 Other commodities Lyn is bullish on
42:15 Gold & silver
45:00 Will gold be used for the oil trade again?
48:00 What else Lyn likes besides commodities
54:30 5-point summary of the conversation
Kategori
Finance and Crypto
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