IT STARTED: The 2023 Stock Market Crash (More Inflation)

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I do not think the market is pricing in the real possibility of another peak in inflation. When all of these things make it into the data that Fed looks at over the next few months, Jerome Powell might surprise the market by raising interest rates higher than expected or keep them higher longer than expected, or both. That doesn’t mean another 75 basis point raise on interest rates right now. It could be a couple 25 basis point raises that turn into 50. Or a couple 50 basis point raises that turn into 75. Or that interest rates stay closer to 4% instead of 3.25 through 2025.

But here's the thing: Rents account for 32% of the CPI, don’t actually go down very often, and can lag the rest of the CPI by up to a year. Energy accounts for 7.5% of the CPI. We were been subsidizing energy costs almost all of 2022 with deployments from the strategic petroleum reserve. These deployments just stopped, right as winter drove up demand while the EU sanctions on Russian oil and gas lower the world’s effective oil supply. What did you think would happen?!

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???? Resources & References ????
@markets BlackRock's Li: Stock Markets Are Pricing 'Take Off' From Here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMxgBowclCk

@CNBC Stock market's final leg down looms as weak earnings season, says Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jllSfmo5a1I

@CNBCtelevision Fed Chair Powell: There will be more rate increases to get to our 2 percent inflation goal: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWNyFCWHlEQ

Stock market is basically going nowhere for the rest of the year: Goldman Sachs: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-goldman-sachs-going-nowhere-2023-outlook-111317727.html

January Inflation Report - Consumer Price Increases Slowed Slightly: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/02/14/business/january-cpi-inflation-report

Jobs report shows increase of 517,000 in January, crushing estimates, as unemployment rate hit 53-year low: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/03/jobs-report-january-2023-.html

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